A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
